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Table 2.6 Overview on available approaches for priorisation in adaptation (MEDIATION project; Watkiss and Hunt, 2013)

ApproachShort description Most useful to apply when…
Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) CBA values all relevant costs and benefits to society of all options, and then estimates a net present value or a benefit. It is an absolute measure providing the justification for intervention, though it is often difficult to value all the costs and benefits of a particular project or policy. Climate probabilities known.
Climate sensitivity small compared to costs/benefits.
Good data exists for major cost/benefit components.
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis (CEA) CEA compares alternative options for achieving similar outputs (or objectives). In this regard it is a relative measure, providing comparative information between choices (unlike CBA, which provides an absolute measure). As for CBA, but for nonmonetary metrics.
Agreement on sectoral social objective (e.g. acceptable risks of flooding).
Multi-criteria analysis (MCA) MCA is a systematic method for assessing and scoring options against a range of decision criteria, some of which are expressed in physical or monetary units, and some which are qualitative. The various criteria can then be weighted to provide an overall ranking of options. Mix of qualitative and quantification data.
Real Options Analysis (ROA) ROA quantifies the investment risk associated with uncertain future outcomes. It can therefore assess whether it is better to invest now or to wait – or whether it is better to invest in options that offer greater flexibility in the future. Large irreversible capital decisions.
Climate risk probabilities known or good information.
Good quality data for major cost/benefit components.
Robust Decision Making (RDM) RDM is a decision support tool that is used in situations of deep uncertainty. It uses quantitative models, or scenario generators, with data mining algorithms, to evaluate how different strategies perform under large ensembles of scenarios reflecting different plausible future conditions. High uncertainty of climate change signal.
Mix of quantitative and qualitative information.
Non-market sectors (e.g. ecosystems, health).
Portfolio Analysis (PA) PA helps in developing portfolios of options, rather than single options. It originated in the context of financial markets to explore the potential for portfolios of financial assets to maximise the financial return on investments, subject to a given level of risk. Adaptation actions likely to be complementary in reducing climate risks.
Climate risk probabilities known or good information
Adaptive Management /
Adaptation Turning Points
Adaptive Management is a long established and less formalised approach that uses a monitoring, research, evaluation and learning process to improve future management strategies.
 
A variation of the approach is to consider major biophysical, human, social or economic thresholds, and the MEDIATION project has developed such assessments using the term ‘Adaptation Turning Points’ looking at socialpolitical thresholds (i.e. a formal policy objective or societal preference).
High uncertainty.
Clear risk thresholds and indicators.
Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) AHP is a form of multi-criteria analysis that undertakes pairwise comparisons using expert judgements to derive priority scales. The method allows the analysis of tangible and intangible elements together, allowing these to be traded off against each other in a decision-making process. Mix of quantitative and qualitative information.
Mix of qualitative and quantification data.
Need for consensus building.

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